Today we’re gonna be discussing the watch market bubble and if it’s about to burst. Ok, so there’s no secret, right now the watch market is super inflated right now. I mean it’s pretty much just a little bit bubbly will say. I wouldn’t go ahead and say it’s like the housing market bubble that there was in two thousand and…the mid two thousands that ended up obviously bursting in 2008, but there is a little bit of an inflation going on there and most of it has to do with supply and demand. So, I don’t really see it so much as a bubble that’s about to burst and the watches are gonna be worth nothing.
That’s the speculation that’s going on. I got comments on my videos. I got phone calls at the store. Everybody’s always talking about, “Ahhh it’s a bubble. It’s about to blow up!’ Yes and no. I do think that there’s some brands right now that the prices are a little bit inflated, but take for example Rolex. Rolex has never been a bubble, since the beginning of time. I mean, there’s people that purchase these vintage watches back in the 1960s, fifty years later they’re worth fifteen times what the original retail was.
Is that a bubble? It’s not. What I do think is that right now there’s a high demand for some of these models and there’s a limited supply, so they’re a little bit high right now. That’s the only thing that I feel. I don’t feel that this bubble is gonna burst and you’re gonna find ceramic date Subs for $4,000. That’s just honestly I don’t see that happening. I mean, take the Batman for example. You can’t even find it right now.
Yesterday it was an $8,000 watch. Now it’s at 11. They’re about to discontinue it. It might be $13,000 like the Hulk, so I don’t really see it so much as a bubble. I just kind of think right now the demand is high. There’s not enough watches, so there’s a bit of an increase. There could be a kick in the market where once the ADs and the brands start releasing watches, you know they might kick down on the market another 1500 bucks, but I don’t see this explosion in the Watch Game that everybody’s waiting for, that the watches are gonna be worth nothing. So then you got other brands, perhaps like Patek. You know, again I don’t see Patek as a bubble because they’re just…the demand for Patek is not gonna fall.
The collectors of Patek are not gonna lose interest and they’re not gonna over produce, like that other watch brand that starts with an H that just came out with 30,000 watches of each model in every single color, shape and form. You see that was a bubble and it already blew up, but Patek I don’t know man. I just think that there’s a lot of hype going on and people want the watches, you know? I think that at the end of the day, it’s what I keep saying, there might be a correction in the market. For Rolex I see it being a couple of grand. For a Patek, maybe five to six thousand dollars, but I don’t see it just exploding and this bubble. I mean, everyone’s telling me, ‘I can’t wait for these watches, for this bubble to blow up and these watches to be worth nothing.’ One brand that we may have to watch closely the next four to five years would be Richard Mille. We just gotta see what happens with that brand, you know? Cuz the prices of those watches are inflated twenty, thirty thousand at a time over retail.
See that’s when we might have to look closely after, but as far as Rolex, Audemars, and Patek, I just don’t see it happening. Take for example the Royal Oak in stainless steel. They’re going for retail, pre-owned. I don’t see that so overly inflated, you know? So maybe you don’t wanna wait two or three years to get one at retail and you wanna pay a couple grand over. A couple grand over, maybe even three to four thousand over for me doesn’t justify a bubble theory in the watch market. So again, we’re gonna watch this closely all together, but I don’t think there’s gonna be this massive explosion. Now, some of the rumors that I’ve been hearing and actually they’re facts is that coming up now in Baselworld 2019, Rolex is gonna be releasing a new line-up for the Submariner, so pretty much the Submariner that we know today is gonna be discontinued. Is probably just gonna be a new movement, a couple of little changes, so pretty much what’s gonna change is the reference number. Does that mean that the previous model, the one that’s currently available right now, is gonna skyrocket? Probably not.
Like I said, it might correct in the market a couple of thousand. That’s about it and I don’t think that Rolex is either gonna just flood the market with these new Subs. So it’s just high in demand man, the Watch Game has really picked up in the last four or five years and people have gotten interest in this hobby and they really wanna buy some nice stuff. What else can I say? Now there’s also rumors that the Batman is gonna be discontinued. I mean, you never know with these guys, you know? The Hulk was supposed to be a watch that celebrated the anniversary of the brand, but yet they’ve made it for a ton of years, so I don’t really know what’s gonna happen with that, but I tell you what, if they do discontinue the Batman, that might be a mini bubble in itself because people might want way too much money for those watches.
Now, in the last five years, the only literal bubble that I have ever seen in this market has been with that brand that’s starts with an H. You see, that one did blow up. They had something good going there. Their watches were in demand. I remember there was a time that you couldn’t even get one of those popular models that they sold the most of at all. Prices were going through the roof. Nowadays what are they worth? Nothing. I’m talking about $250,000 tourbillons, I wouldn’t even give 30 g’s for. You see, that was a bubble within the watch market. As as the Hulk, I don’t see it. I think that right now, if you’re buying a Patek, AP or a Rolex and you’re getting it at a decent price, even if it’s market value, even if you’re paying $11,000 for this Batman.
Not that I agree with it, but that’s the market price, I think you’re safe man. You know, it’s not like you’re buying, OK how can I say, a waterfront property in the summer of 2007, you know? Those prices were really inflated, so things should be pretty stable. We’re gonna have to wait and see with the releases this year and what they do as far as production. I mention in my previous video about being able to buy some of these watches at retail, but you gotta buy three or four other ones at an AD.
I mean look, there’s nothing wrong with that. If you wanna have a good relation with your AD and some people still want that experience, and obviously the watches gotta come from somewhere, so they’re gonna have to come from the AD. Nothing’s wrong with that. They’re gonna start shipping out some watches and they’re gonna be a little bit easier to get. You might maybe have to buy two watches instead of three, so I don’t see that as a long term solution for buying your watches at retail at AD. I think eventually that’s gonna turn around. In the end, if you’re looking to buy watches as an investment purpose, then you really gotta be able to see around the bend and these surges in prices because buying a watch today, let’s just say in today’s market, you can make a good buy and you can have a pretty solid piece at the right price, but in order to make an investment where the watch is gonna jump up, for example five years ago you would have picked up a Patek 5980 steel for $35,000, today it’s gonna be worth 70.
I mean, right now is not really the market for that. Right now it’s more of a hobbyist market. Now, perhaps maybe you can buy of those and hold it 25 years. It’s like everything man, this is a hobby first. I try to always show people and buy these watches with investment mind. Investment doesn’t mean that I’m buying this as like to try a yearly return on it.
I’m just trying to buy something where I have some fun, it’s a hobby, and I don’t lose my money if you get what I’m saying. So keep this in mind. Let’s see what happens. We’re gonna come back to this video when Baselworld comes around and we see the new releases from Rolex and see what really’s gonna happen.
So feel free to comment below how you feel about the current status of the watch market bubble and anything you want, really.
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